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For the past so many years of its planning and designing, the objectives and goals of Kalabagh Dam (KBD) have been shrouded in secrecy, and the Federal Government’s blind following of the project, against the wishes of the three provinces of the federation, has made it the most controversial issue of national integrity.
The project is being pleaded as a turning point in the direction of national development, whereas the provinces see it as step towards the diversion of common resources towards the development of one province (Punjab), leaving all the rest to the possible negative impacts perceived from the project.
In the backdrop of all these events, the role of beneficiaries/affectees has been totally ignored. For which, they have every right to ask for the public disclosure of all the relevant facts regarding selection criteria, planning parameters, design guidelines, cost estimates, environmental and socio-economic assessments, government’s priorities, and financing mechanism of the planned construction. And it becomes more important for projects towards the harnessing of shared water resources, like that of River Indus, and for the equitable distribution of their benefits among the federating units as well as their short and long term impacts on their individual as well as collective lives.
Brief Introduction of Kalabagh Dam Project
Distinctive Characteristics of KBD Project (Ref: WAPDA Reports)
Salient Features of KBD Project
Expected Benefits of the KBD Project
The Kalabagh Dam (KBD) has been pleaded by WAPDA as the only possible choice for saving the food and energy starved nation of Pakistan. In this respect, it has worked out the following beneficial aspects of the project:
Enhancement in the Irrigation Water Supply
Enhancement in the Power Generation Capacity
A Critical Analysis of the KBD Project
A lot has been said, and is still being said, both in favour and against the KBD project, and the debate will continue till a final decision on its fate is achieved.
In this respect, the Federal Government & WAPDA, having all the administrative machinery at their disposal, have conducted a number of studies and organized various seminars, for projecting the beneficial aspects of the project and allay fears against its negative impacts.
On the other hand, enlightened professionals and nationalist organizations have, both individually and collectively, researched on the subject and tried to expose the over-shadowed negative aspects of KBD.
Whereas the few benefits of KBD project have been extensively propagated through the wide publicity campaigns of WAPDA, there has been a need to compile the findings of those unknown researchers, who burnt their midnight oil to expose the multiple destructive capacities of Kalabagh Dam.
Building upon the work done by the said researchers, the following pages will present a critical analysis of the KBD project, so as to enable the reader to assess for himself/herself the ultimate utility of the project to Pakistan.
General Observations on KBD Project
KBD is the only major project in the history of Pakistan, which has been most strongly opposed by the three, out of the four, provinces for various reasons. In this respect, unanimous resolutions have been passed by their elected Provincial Assembles to reject the viability of the project. Also, in the National Assembly and the Senate, the project has been strongly opposed by the elected representatives.
Apart from the technical flaws, making the construction and operation of the project an ultimate disaster, the people of the three provinces have certain reservations against its viability for the integrity of the country, and their common development.
Some of these reservations are described below:
Reservations of NWFP (Pukhtunkhwa)
Reservations of Baluchistan
Reservations of Sindh
Basic Planning Drawbacks in KBD Project
The KBD project suffers from a multitude of planning and design drawbacks, which makes it the least desired development alternative, out of the various development opportunities available in the Indus Basin.
With the KBD as a test case, the following paragraphs exposes the planning capability of WAPDA and the intelligence level of the decision makers at the top, who are adamant to support and propagate the case of a technically unfeasible dam on River Indus.
Unavailability of Enough Water in the Indus River System
Geophysical and Geological Enviroment of KalaBagh Dam
Location of the Dam on a Fault line
Design Drawbacks in KBD Project
Apart from the inherent planning drawbacks, the KBD also suffers from a variety of technical shortcomings. These vary from selecting a site, having the poorest capacity inflow ratio to that of proposing engineering designs making it the most unpredictable dam to operate.
Some of these aspects of the KBD are briefly discussed in the following paragraphs :
Site with Poor Capacity-Inflow Ratio
Disastrous Sedimentation
Silt Clearance Problems
Uncertain & Inefficient Mode of Operation
Relation of KBD to Tarbela Dam
Backwater Effect on Ghazi-Barotha Power Channel
Unfeasible Right Bank Canal
Short-term Impacts of Kalabagh Dam Project
The KBD is feared to cast its sinister shadows from its very first day of construction. They will vary from the dislocation of a large number of people and the submergence of their lands, houses and settlements, to the ultimate disappearance of long established cultures and ways of life. These are discussed as follows :
Population to be Displaced
Area to be Submerged
Long-term Impacts of Kalabagh Dam Project
Like its short-term impacts, KBD is going to have a long standing extremely injurious impact on the lives of the people both living in the immediate vicinity of project, as well as in the rest of the country.
The details of these impacts would vary in nature and in magnitude, and will appear in different moments of coming times to have devastating effects on the civilization of this whole region.
Some of the most important long-term impacts of the KBD are discussed below :
Increase in Surface Water Salinity
Flooding in Nowshera Valley
Drainage/Water-logging Problems in Nowshera
Failure of Mardan/Swabi SCARPs
Danger of Shallow Wells in Karak turning Brackish
Effect on "KATCHO" in Sindh
Effect on Mangrove Forests in Sindh
Salt Water Intrusion in Sindh
Problem to Agriculture with Increased Seepage
The Issue of Water Distribution as a Replacement Water
Operational Problems of Kalabagh Dam Project
The dam is designed for 28 weeks operation (or equivalent), but the model used for analyzing this aspect of the operation shows that the dam will not work efficiently for anything more than 21 weeks (or possibly less). This has been studied in detail by Saeed. A Rashed in his book "KBD, A Scientific Analysis", and the under-mentioned paragraphs from his work will try to summarize his findings.
Irrigation System Management Problems
The Real Power Generation Potential of KBD Project
Flood Regulation Risks
Economic Impact Analysis of KBD
Economic Impact on Various Provinces of Pakistan
Conclusion
Based on the above technical drawbacks, the project is expected to get the most intense reaction from population to be affected, and disrupt the piece and tranquility of the entire country.
Sane considerations therefore demand that KBD should be dropped in the face of better alternatives.
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